Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb88daea714a9daf3bfec86679f25037957043f4b4f80129f1fc36e552608d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 2,597$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…c03fbacked Over | 61c | 1,627$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.66 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 917.25$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.71 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 62c | 812.56$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.63 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 62c | 720$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 38c | 518.64$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.08 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 39c | 444$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 440.78$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 62c | 374$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.12 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 65c | 336.12$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.07 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 15c | 274.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…ca27backed Over | 50c | 201.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.08 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 59c | 185.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Over | 60c | 107$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Over | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 81.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891c…ef89backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…18dcbacked Over | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 47c | 58.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Under | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 39.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Over | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Over | 60c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Over | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Under | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…7935backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…239dbacked Under | 68c | 17.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.