TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,565
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,565 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes2c17,403$433 inLost-$433.2163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf76c…ca21backed Yes0c6,612$14 inLost-$13.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c5,749$17 inLost-$171,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes1c3,077$18 inLost-$18.4124114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7bb…5ebdbacked Yes1c1,917$26 inLost-$25.75520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd815…7af0backed Yes4c1,914$73 inLost-$73.33520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes3c1,211$37 inLost-$36.7424710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f3…170cbacked Yes3c1,041$27 inLost-$27.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x657f…1d58backed Yes1c910.46$13 inLost-$12.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f5…22dabacked Yes3c872.78$23 inLost-$22.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes4c756.67$31 inLost-$31.3236113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c03…0491backed Yes3c616.2$17 inLost-$16.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea54…f674backed Yes4c555.73$20 inLost-$19.556323.8%15 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes3c451.09$14 inLost-$14.3911418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes3c432.55$13 inLost-$13.419511.6%11 W · 84 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f7…e539backed Yes4c316.46$11 inLost-$11.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9af8…b069backed Yes5c195.49$10 inLost-$10.23525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.