Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e2b6042f5d4be2bf248e4f643dc197db6e40112f3a460ea506cb29ad3b8290a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 413.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 373.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 23c | 319.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 77c | 254.92$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 223.57$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 22c | 188.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 19c | 176.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 30c | 168.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 18c | 156.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 124.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 20c | 96.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 20c | 96.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…785ebacked Yes | 24c | 86.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 17c | 66.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 66.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked No | 79c | 61.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…8945backed Yes | 17c | 61.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 39c | 59.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 21c | 59.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 55.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 53.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 23c | 52.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 51.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 49.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 77c | 48.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 38c | 45.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 43.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 30c | 41.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 36c | 38.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…6ae5backed No | 74c | 37.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 35.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 32.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 63c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 30.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2d…f01abacked No | 77c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe314…3c94backed No | 79c | 24.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 73c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…e715backed No | 62c | 16.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 13.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.