Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3d1e80af482f66ad1c133173302a092cfcece89520148d483eb7a2daa93944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,158 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b0e…85c6backed No | 1c | 2,160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 8c | 361.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 7c | 336.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 73c | 282.33$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 200.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 29c | 166.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 147.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 132.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 50c | 126.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 40c | 125.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 49c | 120.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 70c | 116.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 114.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 62c | 113.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 29c | 109.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 41c | 104.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 95.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 88.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 78c | 87.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 51c | 83.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 55c | 83.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 38c | 80.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 37c | 80.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 31c | 77.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…6534backed Yes | 40c | 75.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 72.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 70.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 54c | 61.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 60c | 60.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 47c | 57.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed No | 39c | 53.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…9a91backed Yes | 79c | 53.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 49c | 51.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 58c | 51.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 51.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 49.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 33c | 47.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…9b6fbacked No | 47c | 42.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 33c | 40.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 38.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…de1abacked Yes | 70c | 38.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 40c | 37.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 36.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 45c | 33.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 61c | 32.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 32.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 70c | 31.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 70c | 28.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 48c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 48c | 27.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 48c | 27.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa321…56cabacked Yes | 54c | 26.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 25.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 65c | 25.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 48c | 22.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…ae3fbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 59c | 19.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2f…c96dbacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 74c | 17.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 63c | 16.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 8°C or below on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.