CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3f23f5e3e5afc86a36ccfd0356f8e7ef85b1af2ba549c8418335e96e667c32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Honvédof Honvéd, Noir Verse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6da…fb9abacked Honvéd | 52c | 970.85$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Honvéd | 51c | 790.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.57 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Noir Verse | 49c | 764.61$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.66 | 552 | 36.2%200 W · 352 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Noir Verse | 48c | 554.64$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.23 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Honvéd | 54c | 459.7$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.55 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Noir Verse | 50c | 346$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Noir Verse | 35c | 276.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Noir Verse | 41c | 259.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…34fbbacked Honvéd | 65c | 254.1$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Noir Verse | 48c | 161.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Honvéd | 46c | 125.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Honvéd | 67c | 119.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…42a6backed Noir Verse | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Noir Verse | 35c | 91.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Noir Verse | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Noir Verse | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…1b8abacked Noir Verse | 54c | 73.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Honvéd | 72c | 73.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…ab76backed Noir Verse | 49c | 67.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 338 | 49.7%168 W · 170 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…9ee3backed Noir Verse | 38c | 63.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee71…47c2backed Honvéd | 65c | 57.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Noir Verse | 50c | 51.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Noir Verse | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Noir Verse | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Honvéd | 57c | 34.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…96e1backed Noir Verse | 56c | 34.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Honvéd | 64c | 30.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 164 | 61.6%101 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked Noir Verse | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 255 | 51.8%132 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Noir Verse | 72c | 26.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Honvéd | 67c | 25.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Noir Verse | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…eb72backed Honvéd | 61c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Honvéd | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.