Tennis · resolved market
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e7b125c52037a8069041a0c5f392c30d54c5fbd777dac89caa01ad5f95d166f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 6,600$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,573.69 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 6,434$3,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,474.14 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 699.63$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.8 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 486.53$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.46 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 426.71$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.43 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 420.96$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.67 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 263.03$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 252.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 250.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.11 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 239.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 219.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 213.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…78a1backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 169.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…36c1backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 120.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 112$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a9d1backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 99.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 259 | 48.6%126 W · 133 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 83.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Under 2.5 | 49c | 72.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…4622backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 65.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…c8dabacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 56.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ec…a3adbacked Over 2.5 | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 139 | 66.2%92 W · 47 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 23.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 20.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor FritzTaylor Fritz won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs FritzShelton won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5)Shelton won
- Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Shelton vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.