TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inner Circle Esportsof Inner Circle Esports, Rune Eaters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,530 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rune Eaters19c5,725$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.311,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Rune Eaters27c1,876$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017847.2%84 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9573…4b98backed Rune Eaters22c1,847$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a5b…b252backed Inner Circle Esports78c1,578$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6b…321fbacked Rune Eaters23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Inner Circle Esports78c1,461$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.2985446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Rune Eaters15c1,411$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.566,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3297…595dbacked Rune Eaters23c1,230$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1399…679bbacked Rune Eaters24c1,156$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x803f…b6b3backed Rune Eaters18c1,103$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1967436.5%27 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Rune Eaters16c1,061$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8616945%76 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaaa9…d37fbacked Rune Eaters23c1,042$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f6…bf3ebacked Rune Eaters22c1,040$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Rune Eaters14c1,003$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.365,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Rune Eaters25c1,001$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.452636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2453…11d3backed Rune Eaters25c908.99$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.251163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee7…97d6backed Rune Eaters24c901$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.24944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c8…044abacked Rune Eaters23c833$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79aa…f5b9backed Inner Circle Esports78c759$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf585…e2a2backed Rune Eaters23c712$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.76966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9072…efb8backed Inner Circle Esports76c694$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.561040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc761…0470backed Inner Circle Esports77c683$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.091258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Inner Circle Esports73c682.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.2156732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ed…8d3dbacked Inner Circle Esports76c608$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc78…ce73backed Rune Eaters25c606$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+274.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x175e…8525backed Rune Eaters24c604.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f8…cd21backed Rune Eaters24c602$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4850%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x671f…e9f8backed Inner Circle Esports77c600$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1401…cc21backed Rune Eaters25c583$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf791…6e88backed Rune Eaters25c574$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x046d…fb68backed Inner Circle Esports76c548$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8e…1270backed Inner Circle Esports75c547$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.75540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79b9…ba2cbacked Inner Circle Esports77c493$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.391154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…e77fbacked Inner Circle Esports77c492$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.16875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a05…3ef2backed Inner Circle Esports77c480$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Rune Eaters22c475$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.57536%27 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x271f…0a04backed Rune Eaters24c470$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.81540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7078…2210backed Rune Eaters24c454$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x610b…d55dbacked Inner Circle Esports75c443$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc9…50aebacked Inner Circle Esports77c442$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Inner Circle Esports76c441$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7539239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865e…f2d4backed Inner Circle Esports77c436$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e16…900dbacked Inner Circle Esports76c424$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.761050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Rune Eaters20c423.76$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.645639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f4a…4ecbbacked Inner Circle Esports77c403$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e7c…1c02backed Inner Circle Esports77c397$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ea…43cfbacked Inner Circle Esports75c389$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.251250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0b4…834ebacked Inner Circle Esports80c375.85$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.859561.1%58 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a4b…e600backed Inner Circle Esports76c370$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-53.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a46…97eabacked Rune Eaters25c370$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick42cpaid+147.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Rune Eaters18c367$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.871,07832%345 W · 733 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b5…ac7ebacked Rune Eaters22c363.26$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.39933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee4…13e1backed Inner Circle Esports77c346$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.58540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a04…9200backed Rune Eaters23c338$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.74650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+372.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6f…4b85backed Inner Circle Esports75c334$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f5…1424backed Inner Circle Esports77c323$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.291361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdcc…e679backed Inner Circle Esports77c309$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b37…08a1backed Inner Circle Esports76c304$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed9b…96bdbacked Inner Circle Esports76c301$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9136…a0fdbacked Inner Circle Esports75c289$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b39…21debacked Inner Circle Esports75c285$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc793…f66fbacked Rune Eaters22c283.34$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.354131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eec…7111backed Inner Circle Esports78c281$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Rune Eaters20c280.13$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3354032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc578…5c1ebacked Rune Eaters12c278.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.753357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2df1…fd83backed Inner Circle Esports78c269$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+130.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6a…cbe2backed Inner Circle Esports75c266$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0284…cfebbacked Inner Circle Esports76c259$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Rune Eaters19c247$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.825625%14 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe489…8fd8backed Rune Eaters24c239$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.361464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle Esports79c223.57$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rune Eaters9c210.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.865,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f7…9acebacked Inner Circle Esports76c207$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-44.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Inner Circle Esports76c203.26$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.425,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Inner Circle Esports80c197.29$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2711646.6%54 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9e…764fbacked Inner Circle Esports77c194$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.62771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+42.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x302f…627cbacked Inner Circle Esports76c194$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.56955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe49…9c28backed Inner Circle Esports79c191$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.11650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc006…3c94backed Inner Circle Esports79c184.81$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.815738.6%22 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4772…9f1bbacked Inner Circle Esports75c184$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Rune Eaters26c180$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.81,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee5…8306backed Inner Circle Esports76c177$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59c8…5efbbacked Rune Eaters17c176.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2112…38e9backed Inner Circle Esports76c171$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.041735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Rune Eaters14c168$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6146344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Rune Eaters15c160$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0954346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rune Eaters8c153.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.631,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Rune Eaters17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8849745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Rune Eaters18c147$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0631440.1%126 W · 188 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Rune Eaters18c140$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5249242.1%207 W · 285 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3b…bea0backed Inner Circle Esports75c140$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+159%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed Rune Eaters19c139.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2669732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa1…2c8abacked Inner Circle Esports76c132.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.431154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765d…610bbacked Inner Circle Esports78c127.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.49875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39e2…040dbacked Rune Eaters22c121.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710045%45 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Rune Eaters9c119.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.841,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Rune Eaters12c112$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2129647.6%141 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8441…7925backed Rune Eaters18c112$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.489940.4%40 W · 59 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed Rune Eaters21c109.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0914839.9%59 W · 89 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa512…175cbacked Rune Eaters14c109.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.