Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eb54ce2238e20d2f7d5b3a5832beb610de55ad25fbee56da0d120ed2d440ec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked Yes | 0c | 6,155$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 12c | 2,322$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.56 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 1,467$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,279$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.88 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 850.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 49c | 678.68$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.84 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 17c | 666.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 17c | 633.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 602$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 592.2$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 582.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…32e2backed Yes | 43c | 460.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 393.41$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.91 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 383.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 31c | 312.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c85backed Yes | 5c | 297.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed No | 65c | 268.84$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 5c | 243.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 239.26$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 6c | 232.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 227.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 213.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…16a4backed Yes | 33c | 153.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 70c | 126.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…bd6bbacked Yes | 10c | 126.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bf…a07cbacked Yes | 25c | 115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 70c | 113.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 112$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…6f87backed Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 106.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 34c | 105.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 28c | 100.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc560…adbabacked No | 65c | 92.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…1a0dbacked Yes | 19c | 91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 47c | 85.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 71c | 81.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 29c | 74.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked Yes | 30c | 71.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…ee3abacked No | 67c | 61.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed Yes | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…316ebacked No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 68c | 45.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 70c | 35.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 31.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…3228backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbc…c481backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…cecdbacked No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 73c | 22.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 64c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 65c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 75c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 74c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a7…c0b0backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…56ccbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 73c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.