Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7788d30df120abfcb3f2cde6ec6057bf746ea802aa62b5a7d6e2e275c150fe40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 2,064$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 996.48$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 742.24$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.46 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 602$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 4c | 535.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 25c | 443.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 25c | 425.55$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…32e2backed Yes | 34c | 293.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 24c | 287.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 4c | 280$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 246.56$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 29c | 229.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 200.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 200.07$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 71c | 187.28$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 12c | 174.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Yes | 6c | 172.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 153$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 70c | 147$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 7c | 146.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 78c | 127.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 127.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…3187backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…2a39backed Yes | 27c | 106$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 104.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 100.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 24c | 100.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 27c | 100.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…c972backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…ab83backed Yes | 17c | 83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 32c | 80.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 17c | 78.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 69c | 71.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 29c | 60.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 19c | 55.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…fe90backed No | 77c | 55.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 21c | 51.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 71c | 48.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 32c | 46.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 69c | 46.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c14…f7eabacked No | 76c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 44.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 29c | 42.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 78c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 37.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…f760backed Yes | 30c | 37.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 75c | 34.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 74c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 71c | 32.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 70c | 31.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 69c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 72c | 24.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…385dbacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…fd6ebacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 70c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…b462backed No | 69c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked No | 74c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd808…b3acbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 76c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.