TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,470
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,470 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4acc…9bdabacked Yes0c10,200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.73273.7%1 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes34c1,194$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.541,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c1,175$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes32c1,056$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.7241845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes23c951.48$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0273927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c812.53$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.17,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes9c791.45$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.881,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes35c602$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.111,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ea…32e2backed Yes58c513.39$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-52.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes23c419.08$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.063132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes36c386.66$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.591,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes9c372.36$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6715334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes18c267.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3961821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes54c262.24$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.415226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes24c230.29$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6423823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes8c216.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.857,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No54c213.51$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.183,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No65c200$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes30c178.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4911126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x53a0…1907backed Yes6c166.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10739.6%7 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe535…7d1bbacked Yes45c163$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe89a…92f8backed Yes38c159$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No56c155.85$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.551,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3949…dffdbacked No66c152.66$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.914148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6810…c641backed Yes38c149.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.33836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No71c149.08$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7819259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c8…446cbacked Yes43c149.04$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.835225%13 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c126.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.682,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes17c123.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6647136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No62c113.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.811,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes16c112$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9259818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed Yes31c111.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6821722.6%49 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No59c110$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.121,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.239541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1f…493cbacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.343876.3%29 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb701…1994backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.985959.3%35 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.316643.9%29 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4117433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No65c99.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.996950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes36c99.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.841,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes60c98.49$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1337056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e87…5eb7backed No65c96.35$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.722245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes34c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.625725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes17c88.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes20c85.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.433620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c85.44$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.044,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c83.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No54c80.61$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0818052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6b…c053backed Yes35c74.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.771330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes35c72.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1640741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x22fe…20c6backed No69c70.85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.085350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed Yes33c70.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.261526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9c…1450backed No78c68.47$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0614251.4%73 W · 69 L-21.9wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-29.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c67.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.623,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ff…105fbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+69%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes32c62.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010732.7%35 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77da…d3bdbacked No62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes32c59.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.211038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x279e…5994backed Yes34c59.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2702…06bebacked Yes38c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.79328%26 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid+49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes46c54.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2549941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f36…8b52backed No62c54$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No69c50.01$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.547442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.424046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2472…5f3bbacked No55c49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x27f2…08ffbacked No62c45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked No66c44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9613663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x726f…511ebacked No55c41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc7d…305ebacked No69c40.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.73458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade8…652abacked Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5450…117abacked No55c36.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.36560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc28a…e150backed No55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed No56c35.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8325058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7129558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31dc…ce99backed Yes42c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710427.9%29 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1566141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.698738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes36c29.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7921235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes36c29.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5228648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1345…e4debacked No68c29.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.417676.3%58 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9740…2eeebacked No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.282152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.684,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes42c27.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7546743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No62c27.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5615954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No70c27.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.077650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes42c25.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No60c23.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4420150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ced…6c85backed No56c22.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.962520%5 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid+48.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf833…0208backed No69c21.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.741827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-59.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0813…b52fbacked No56c21.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No58c19.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0112567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4219058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No68c16.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.267767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed No70c16.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.816445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.