Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296a04870fb79ed669f5524c26226f9b9b32314e00cac258ac883d6fb4968558
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 1c | 2,947$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,970$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.93 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…ee3abacked No | 1c | 1,650$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 3c | 1,594$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 1,459$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 38c | 1,185$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.76 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 4c | 1,137$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.87 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 2c | 1,067$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 638.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 10c | 625$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.19 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 602$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked No | 5c | 601.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 591.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.2 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 53c | 490.72$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.96 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c85backed Yes | 3c | 489.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.89 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…2ad3backed No | 6c | 453.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 5c | 413$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.59 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 345.3$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.16 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 343.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 6c | 326.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.07 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 3c | 317.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 5c | 313.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.9 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 5c | 302.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 4c | 280$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 5c | 230$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.65 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 11c | 213.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.42 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 208.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 62c | 196.11$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 7c | 179.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 10c | 175.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.66 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 7c | 170.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.78 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…0f11backed Yes | 14c | 146.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 114.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 102.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 29c | 102.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 31c | 94.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 46c | 93.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 17c | 69.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 56c | 54.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 43c | 52.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 29c | 44.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 41.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 35c | 40.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 39.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 38c | 38.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 76c | 37.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 35c | 36.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 61c | 30.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 28.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 76c | 27.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 27.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked No | 70c | 15.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.