Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eed128fb5e312a2529dfb45e6984da7871a8a49a442e870f8fdda89763c969d

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca7c…e994backed No	42c	399.95$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.23	373	50.1%187 W · 186 L	+45.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+28%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes	60c	83.33$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	49c	58.39$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.54	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…ac32backed Yes	57c	58.25$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.05	141	48.2%68 W · 73 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02e0…9633backed Yes	57c	43.86$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.86	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Yes	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	90	57.8%52 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x163a…9fd5backed Yes	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	51c	35$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.15	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes	57c	34.42$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.8	171	48.5%83 W · 88 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf46f…0e0fbacked Yes	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	162	62.3%101 W · 61 L	+10.9wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x843c…2c05backed Yes	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Yes	53c	27.58$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	572	52.4%300 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18fe…af43backed Yes	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	82	59.8%49 W · 33 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8977…6579backed Yes	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	73	63%46 W · 27 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event