Fifa International · resolved market
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5d1394f8be992f5bcd6d8e34ada3dd7ebef88f90696f0e7eeb1ed3e68da6dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c09…3fd2backed Yes | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…1002backed Yes | 15c | 3,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 249 | 17.7%44 W · 205 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 15c | 2,490$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd35b…4a53backed Yes | 15c | 625$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…7bfebacked Yes | 15c | 612.71$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…b7abbacked Yes | 12c | 599.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 15c | 366.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 199 | 35.2%70 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb73…4f95backed Yes | 15c | 323.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes | 15c | 322.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Yes | 15c | 225.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…cb82backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 179 | 33.5%60 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58e…a0b0backed Yes | 15c | 162.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…77f0backed Yes | 14c | 140.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…be19backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 323 | 12.1%39 W · 284 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 15c | 129.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…9294backed Yes | 15c | 103.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 494 | 26.7%132 W · 362 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…b6c8backed Yes | 15c | 103.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 26.1%30 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Yes | 15c | 102.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 452 | 54.6%247 W · 205 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…ee5fbacked Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goalsthis page
- Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goalsNo won
- Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 1+ shotsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 3+ shotsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shotsYes won
- Leandro Trossard: 1+ assistsNo won
- Leandro Trossard: 1+ goalsNo won
- Leandro Trossard: 2+ goalsNo won
- Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goalsNo won
- Mehdi Taremi: 2+ goalsNo won
- Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assistsNo won
- Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goalsNo won
- Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goalsNo won
- Youri Tielemans: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.