Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2efbf7d2f65ed4d3ad6fc6a00b14d9b5ab7715030dcb9eb4c0faa4b56788bc8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 56c | 389.49$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.56 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 9c | 356.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 354.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 332.02$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 296.16$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 243.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 234.4$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.56 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 70c | 223.03$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…147abacked No | 50c | 206.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 146.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 121.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 62c | 111.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 20c | 104.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 101.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 92.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 17c | 89.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 37c | 67.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 50c | 66.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked No | 15c | 66.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 36c | 63.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 34c | 55.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c1…51f6backed Yes | 31c | 51.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 55c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 56c | 50.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 49c | 47.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 37c | 47.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes | 41c | 45.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 36c | 45.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 32c | 41.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 38c | 39.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 38.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…9ccabacked Yes | 48c | 37.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 67c | 35.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 80c | 34.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed No | 64c | 30.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…a89ebacked Yes | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 48c | 27.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 41c | 26.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 51c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…306ebacked Yes | 79c | 21.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 51c | 20.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 20.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 75c | 19.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 61c | 18.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 67c | 17.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 64c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 17.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 77c | 14.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.