Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27897dad5f11d9fa7cddd69cde3dc59ce8f9e881300b065e9ded79a198ac75dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 0c | 54,113$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 998.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 747.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 535.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 18c | 420.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 9c | 415.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 386.28$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 18c | 385.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 321.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 286.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 7c | 285.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 8c | 280.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 248.23$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 199.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 19c | 162.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 25c | 158.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 78c | 156.02$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 146.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 21c | 144.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 132.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 128.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 109.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 12c | 104.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 24c | 102.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 20c | 99.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 16c | 96.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 91.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 88.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 78c | 86.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 19c | 83.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 78.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 76.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 74c | 68.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 78c | 64.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 61.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 80c | 61.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 60.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c1…51f6backed Yes | 22c | 52.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 75c | 52.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 74c | 49.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 79c | 49.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes | 27c | 45.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 40.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 80c | 39.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 39.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked No | 80c | 36.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 35c | 36.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 33c | 33.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…685abacked No | 77c | 33.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 32c | 31.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 79c | 31.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 28.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 80c | 27.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 24.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…2085backed No | 72c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 16.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6363…aa9ebacked No | 75c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 77c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 79c | 14.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 77c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed No | 78c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.