Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Fonseca vs. Cobolli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f03b24a7d7839f4a2a4ff19ab7ecf37fc29875f56adbbe73b690073734acf49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cobolli of Fonseca , Cobolli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Fonseca | 58c | 10,004$5,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,773.52 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2f…aaf8backed Cobolli | 38c | 8,970$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,561.37 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Fonseca | 69c | 8,235$5,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,697.41 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Fonseca | 54c | 3,559$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.74 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Cobolli | 35c | 2,377$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.24 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cobolli | 37c | 2,004$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.22 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…6f28backed Fonseca | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Fonseca | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.98 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Cobolli | 42c | 1,202$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.38 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fonseca | 62c | 967.73$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Cobolli | 16c | 925.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.58 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Cobolli | 41c | 819.22$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.7 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Cobolli | 33c | 817.53$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.57 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Cobolli | 22c | 778.27$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Cobolli | 40c | 508$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.96 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Cobolli | 22c | 464.55$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.85 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Cobolli | 39c | 366$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.85 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Cobolli | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cobolli | 36c | 285.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cobolli | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cobolli | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Fonseca | 62c | 237.18$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Fonseca | 34c | 184$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Fonseca | 76c | 171.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Cobolli | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Cobolli | 19c | 105.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Fonseca | 66c | 98.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Cobolli | 36c | 96.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Cobolli | 39c | 87.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Fonseca | 54c | 39.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cobolli | 35c | 33.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…570bbacked Fonseca | 65c | 33.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Fonseca | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.