Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f32769f5135706ee1224d4681e43e92b47ad7bee251affba0955ec0c9c2f583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 9,302$6,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,601.55 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…4f48backed Yes | 28c | 9,281$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 1,365$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.73 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 25c | 812$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 811.05$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.46 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 16c | 632.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 578$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 25c | 572.19$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 75c | 569$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 393.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 25c | 392$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 250.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1a…ea9bbacked Yes | 36c | 170.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 75c | 139.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943d…7aa1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 83.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 21c | 82.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…1437backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed No | 76c | 70.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 27c | 66.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…d934backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 25c | 43.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe26…3fd6backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-22?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.