Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53bb8ea93e85d70b8185029f2f315c41aeae70c1b0611276ee97e85b1415b4fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 10,204$7,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.33 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…4a0cbacked Yes | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 3c | 6,616$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 1c | 5,985$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 4,938$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.36 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 59c | 2,275$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.25 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,067$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 38c | 1,001$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 78c | 970$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.7 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 35c | 950$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.42 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 34c | 880$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.48 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…ea47backed Yes | 55c | 714.55$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 46c | 712.87$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.97 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 33c | 575.85$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.16 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 19c | 568.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 36c | 488.4$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.35 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 62c | 454.31$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 70c | 451.97$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 64c | 447.64$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.15 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked Yes | 28c | 441.36$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 66c | 438$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 67c | 414.82$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 51c | 389.37$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.79 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed No | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 44c | 222$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed Yes | 55c | 161.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 66c | 144$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 34c | 139.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 65c | 136$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 54c | 112.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 28c | 111.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes | 33c | 92.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 67c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…894fbacked Yes | 56c | 67.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 56c | 67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 35c | 56.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 51c | 56.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…92bdbacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 65c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 66c | 30.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 65c | 27.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 67c | 19.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 57c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.