Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f377a8ba1b61ea6a4f328aabad89d2ed18b30efd61734eab5238cb9136f7827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 8c | 698.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 668.17$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.29 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 636.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 630.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 454.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 5c | 286.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 43c | 250.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 248$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 217.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 46c | 217.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 47c | 187.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 9c | 166.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 54c | 156.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 134.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 38c | 134.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 132.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 126.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 122$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 72c | 97.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed No | 71c | 91.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 89.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…98efbacked No | 55c | 87.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 82.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed No | 61c | 82.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…73d0backed Yes | 45c | 81.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 45c | 81.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 36c | 79.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 61c | 75.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 62.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 51c | 58.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 37c | 53.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 44c | 50.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…11f8backed Yes | 48c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 43.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 75c | 39.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 52c | 38.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 38c | 37.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 58c | 36.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 32.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 77c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…03bebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 22.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…dc4dbacked Yes | 48c | 20.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 18.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 58c | 17.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.