Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c0c778c00e2845818d83704eae560a11c88c47d881b7dbe1f8149f60cbfcea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 472.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 466.22$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 37c | 398.62$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 36c | 270.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 270$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 241.95$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 222.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 14c | 191.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 73c | 184.05$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 36c | 167.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…7544backed No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 158.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 150.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 48c | 144.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…dcedbacked Yes | 34c | 144.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 140.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 33c | 137.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 64c | 114.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 42c | 107.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 47c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 59.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 71c | 58.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 46c | 56.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 52.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 51.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 51.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 32c | 50.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 42.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 41.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…0de3backed Yes | 53c | 39.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 37c | 34.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 34.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 33.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 37c | 32.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 32.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…b743backed Yes | 53c | 32.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 59c | 30.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 35c | 30.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa021…d5c9backed No | 67c | 24.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 24.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…a285backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 22.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 22.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 49c | 21.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 70c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 16.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.