Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91282024ed5b4edfb83fb56acf5df99cfc9fdece3f73ba547910bda9406e683d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 9c | 891.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 629.37$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 498.39$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 53c | 460.43$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.28 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 442.07$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 9c | 387.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 294.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed No | 6c | 233.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 46c | 222.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 219.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 70c | 204.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 204.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 204.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 8c | 196.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 182.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 20c | 178.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.11 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 53c | 165.47$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 57c | 148.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 27c | 143.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 10c | 128.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 33c | 121.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 70c | 95.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 16c | 95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 82.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 60c | 79.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 17c | 70.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 69.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 27c | 66.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…b743backed Yes | 68c | 64.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 58c | 62.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 57.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 73c | 54.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 46c | 50.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 50.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 50.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 41c | 36.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 48c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 53c | 22.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 22.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 14.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.