Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f8aad2b5904c6764be3cf662948728369aa5ec2e321e4e86c14f69804a524f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked No | 1c | 4,776$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b43…aef6backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed No | 2c | 1,396$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 5c | 1,188$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.93 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 10c | 1,039$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,039$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.72 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 617.49$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.75 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…466fbacked Yes | 19c | 529.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…734abacked Yes | 18c | 499.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…5292backed Yes | 21c | 470.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 11c | 183.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.83 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 25c | 165.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcade…ffe0backed Yes | 18c | 109.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…45a4backed No | 76c | 91.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked No | 70c | 73.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…05d6backed No | 75c | 54.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked No | 77c | 33.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed No | 58c | 32.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5707backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.