NFL · resolved market
Will the Ravens beat the Steelers by 10 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f90b176ac9948978d2fb01ec7a946d485ca9dffdd3be49b3274e817172c0046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Ravens, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Steelers | 54c | 11,294$6,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,096.89 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ravens | 46c | 10,607$4,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,727.91 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Ravens | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Ravens | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Steelers | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Steelers | 45c | 909.09$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.09 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Ravens | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Ravens | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Steelers | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Steelers | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Ravens | 46c | 487$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.98 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed Steelers | 51c | 413$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.89 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Ravens | 52c | 300$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Ravens | 50c | 205$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…9441backed Ravens | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ravens | 47c | 96.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Steelers | 44c | 83.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Steelers | 44c | 79.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Ravens beat the Steelers by 10 or more points?this page
- Will the Ravens and Steelers combine for 44 or more points?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.