Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fb8c40aed8c2eed20a1bc8df81cd10476690694e0efeff71489f40a5433cd3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 18c | 7,343$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.59 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 5,504$4,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.39 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 23c | 5,446$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.56 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 25c | 3,471$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.36 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 79c | 3,325$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.25 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 2,512$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.47 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 4c | 2,184$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 76c | 2,072$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.66 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 79c | 1,620$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.69 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Yes | 22c | 1,124$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.35 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed Yes | 4c | 824.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Yes | 3c | 499.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 24c | 428.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 76c | 325.29$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 22c | 260$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 77c | 236$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 77c | 236$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…da77backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 24c | 188.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Yes | 25c | 188$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 20c | 175.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…fc85backed Yes | 22c | 165$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 25c | 88.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 75.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 71.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…2016backed Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 79c | 65.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 18c | 60.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked No | 80c | 52.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed No | 76c | 34.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.