Mls · resolved market
Will Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d67ad025b3651cb6336dc733a643559f1b09f48f87f5d6d4a189fdb0ae0f978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed No | 4c | 18,090$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.47 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked No | 8c | 3,190$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.52 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 38c | 2,661$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.95 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 78c | 2,586$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.82 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 64c | 2,087$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.28 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 63c | 1,632$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.83 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 4c | 1,130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 26c | 1,043$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.44 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked No | 58c | 738.59$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.38 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 32c | 709.6$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.01 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 608.96$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.81 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 446.16$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.39 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed No | 55c | 349$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.47 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 24c | 340.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.78 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 288.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.02 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 14c | 270.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 72c | 270$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…d4c6backed No | 11c | 257.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 75c | 246.21$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 16c | 235.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.02 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 68c | 186.23$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.19 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 35c | 169.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.86 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 44c | 169.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…f400backed Yes | 14c | 161$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 59c | 144.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 55c | 127.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 39c | 119.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Yes | 41c | 118.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 72c | 111.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked No | 14c | 103.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed No | 13c | 100.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 100.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed No | 12c | 88.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 24c | 81.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 73c | 64.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 76c | 64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 76c | 63.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…4ba8backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Yes | 26c | 62.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Yes | 26c | 62.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Yes | 36c | 58.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 34c | 51.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 50c | 48.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 68c | 46.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 76c | 41.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 55c | 36.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 35.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 46c | 32.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 59cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 62c | 30.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…9cccbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 52c | 25.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 78cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.