Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Top Esports vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fc540438175e4c1ae39e775e7d8320f98a3d62671a8c04baad0ac9d34f9290f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Top Esportsof Top Esports, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $290,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea0f…23b1backed NIP | 10c | 65,805$6,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,540.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed NIP | 13c | 48,211$6,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,507.61 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed NIP | 10c | 36,313$3,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,529.73 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked NIP | 13c | 15,437$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.52 | 303 | 21.8%66 W · 237 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked NIP | 13c | 9,692$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.92 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed NIP | 9c | 6,552$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.35 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…610ebacked NIP | 13c | 5,012$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.49 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed NIP | 12c | 3,012$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed NIP | 7c | 3,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed NIP | 10c | 1,937$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked NIP | 13c | 1,849$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.95 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…9bc5backed NIP | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Top Esports | 74c | 1,187$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.4 | 183 | 40.4%74 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed NIP | 12c | 1,029$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 302 | 43%130 W · 172 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed NIP | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 388 | 37.4%145 W · 243 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed NIP | 5c | 764.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 417 | 43.9%183 W · 234 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed NIP | 15c | 683.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed NIP | 18c | 653.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked NIP | 13c | 600$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed NIP | 11c | 569.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed NIP | 6c | 528.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +12.5wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2e…e816backed NIP | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed NIP | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed NIP | 9c | 416.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed NIP | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed NIP | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked NIP | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed NIP | 13c | 333$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…45debacked NIP | 29c | 307.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed NIP | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Top Esports | 80c | 289$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed NIP | 20c | 289$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bca…3ce9backed NIP | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5e86backed NIP | 7c | 236.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked NIP | 9c | 216.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed NIP | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 538 | 29.4%158 W · 380 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Top Esports | 70c | 165.87$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…564cbacked NIP | 14c | 143.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed NIP | 10c | 114.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…38ccbacked NIP | 17c | 111.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Top Esports | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked NIP | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…d8b7backed Top Esports | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c13…8834backed Top Esports | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.