Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fdf9e48981123e1dcfdef7334699b4beba7b03eb25faaf2eefb351b0f5596f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Over | 61c | 10,811$6,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,621.12 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe3…c693backed Over | 60c | 3,308$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 2,686$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.62 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 39c | 1,773$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.43 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 38c | 1,540$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.21 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 1,537$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.54 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 39c | 1,271$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.12 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 12c | 1,163$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.29 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 760.17$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 13c | 432$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 338.07$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.11 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 39c | 320$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 39c | 320$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Under | 41c | 241.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.33 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 50c | 230$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 58c | 228.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 13c | 191.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 190.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 40c | 180.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 39c | 170.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 32c | 164.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 156.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 71c | 132.58$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 20c | 118.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 32c | 94.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 39c | 72.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 56c | 56.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 61c | 53.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 41c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…3412backed Under | 43c | 33.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.