Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce027df4e9bfbfff7b74b1cb2833b42c6ed56b6ed0a10d9dfd64faf586ebece1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 52c | 9,620$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.38 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 6,323$2,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,641.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 2,463$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.42 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 17c | 1,451$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.7 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 48c | 1,111$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.78 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 764.22$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.26 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 46c | 649.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.54 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 43c | 610.43$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 57c | 200.55$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over | 39c | 158.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 152.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 46c | 136.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…d0bfbacked Over | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 23c | 111.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 51c | 101.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 15c | 78.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 78c | 69.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 66c | 47.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 24c | 45.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…944bbacked Over | 23c | 45.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 48c | 43.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923a…e723backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Under | 25c | 40.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…5981backed Under | 77c | 31.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 45c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 66c | 23.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed Over | 53c | 21.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.