Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9753f033992f4496c2d82a7eba0a7ea46c0de1b69f1b6f282a3709876f8c187d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorfof FC Schalke 04, TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed FC Schalke 04 | 38c | 13,160$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.71 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 62c | 12,370$7,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,712.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed FC Schalke 04 | 40c | 1,261$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 62c | 1,195$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.15 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 59c | 986.32$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.55 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 60c | 405.95$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.07 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed FC Schalke 04 | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 59c | 268.48$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…5ddabacked FC Schalke 04 | 41c | 244.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 58c | 200.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed FC Schalke 04 | 38c | 140.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed FC Schalke 04 | 47c | 126.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed FC Schalke 04 | 38c | 84.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked FC Schalke 04 | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…c53fbacked FC Schalke 04 | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 66c | 61.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked FC Schalke 04 | 34c | 55.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…edb9backed FC Schalke 04 | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -7.6wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 64c | 51.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FC Schalke 04 | 32c | 51.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed FC Schalke 04 | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 58c | 48.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 63c | 48.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed FC Schalke 04 | 39c | 43.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…7b1bbacked FC Schalke 04 | 36c | 41.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked FC Schalke 04 | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a4…31eebacked FC Schalke 04 | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 63c | 35.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…1aa2backed TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 66c | 20.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.