NBA · resolved market
Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe11b8cfbfaa7423ae36077edad620aeb053691ce048560033976ef4f1ba911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,736$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…9dcabacked Under | 57c | 1,400$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…29f1backed Over | 43c | 1,400$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 52c | 1,235$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.42 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Under | 52c | 975.58$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.3 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…860cbacked Over | 45c | 750$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe971…350cbacked Under | 55c | 750$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 483.42$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.38 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 383.67$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.67 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 304.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.41 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 252$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 55c | 182.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 58c | 171.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 41c | 68.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdb…750fbacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 30.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c9…2e09backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 51c | 23.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 236.5this page
- Clippers vs. HeatHeat won
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.