NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fecb82cf7dcc6810f4fc8eda358843c0f6cc0af81fd9d683e1c0bb067d59fdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060e…2384backed Clippers | 50c | 77,000$38,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,846.47 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Heat | 49c | 48,630$23,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,801.37 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 52c | 14,364$7,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,926.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 47c | 10,698$5,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,071.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Heat | 51c | 9,999$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.61 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 50c | 9,158$4,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,579 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 35c | 8,467$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Heat | 54c | 6,000$3,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,779.98 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Clippers | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Clippers | 49c | 3,892$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.3 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Heat | 53c | 3,821$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.75 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Heat | 53c | 2,236$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 49c | 2,002$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.02 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Heat | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Heat | 52c | 1,717$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.16 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Clippers | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Heat | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Heat | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Clippers | 36c | 849.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.72 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Heat | 55c | 649.18$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.35 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Heat | 54c | 599.98$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.99 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Heat | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Clippers | 45c | 497.8$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.01 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Heat | 52c | 479.1$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.97 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Clippers | 47c | 439.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.79 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Clippers | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Heat | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Clippers | 45c | 374.91$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Heat | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Heat | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Clippers | 43c | 294.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.58 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Clippers | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 46c | 248.58$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Clippers | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat | 53c | 208.69$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clippers | 47c | 194.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Clippers | 48c | 153$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Clippers | 47c | 138.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Heat | 54c | 124.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Heat | 54c | 122.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Heat | 53c | 114.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Clippers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Heat | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Clippers | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Heat | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Clippers | 47c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Heat | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Heat | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…7d56backed Heat | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Clippers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Clippers | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467f…d952backed Clippers | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…5061backed Clippers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Heat | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…d69cbacked Clippers | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Heat | 52c | 30.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Heat | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Heat | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Clippers | 46c | 25.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Clippers | 49c | 24.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Clippers | 49c | 24.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Heat | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Heat | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…2ca6backed Heat | 57c | 18.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)this page
- Clippers vs. HeatHeat won
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.