NBA · resolved market
Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f4280f2e461a3dd47837ffb079f66db51765fc8101ddff693c85e37cd2dc65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde19…8e43backed Over | 49c | 7,700$3,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,927 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ec…55ebbacked Under | 51c | 7,700$3,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,927 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 51c | 4,902$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,739$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 50c | 1,310$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 1,307$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.32 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 49c | 409.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…2c3cbacked Over | 50c | 406$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 401$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.53 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 50c | 396.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…2370backed Over | 50c | 354$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…9a99backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 50c | 201$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…c177backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 176$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…d6e9backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…80f7backed Over | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…5ca7backed Over | 51c | 48.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Over | 51c | 48.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Over | 51c | 48.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Over | 51c | 29.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae66backed Over | 51c | 26.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…46a1backed Over | 51c | 21.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 235.5this page
- Clippers vs. HeatHeat won
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.