Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe3145a8af4b151ce59d8c1cc7509a157eed31c867f84c2452dd45956cd6190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 68c | 2,159$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.23 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 4c | 1,123$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 2c | 1,031$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 612$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 13c | 344.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 264.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 31c | 196$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 132.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 128.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 113.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 31c | 112.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 111.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 111.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 107.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 32c | 104.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 92.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 92.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 31c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 66.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 34c | 60.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 70c | 55.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 55.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 31c | 54.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 54.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 25c | 51.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 26c | 51.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…d7cbbacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 46.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 40.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 37.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 33.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed No | 69c | 32.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 73c | 31.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 70c | 26.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 69c | 20.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…cf3bbacked No | 73c | 13.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.