Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb27f93d511bf38d7b3198f4536ce5b1c810a8a422334a6bf8ec4c7f2984e354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 57c | 900$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 572.49$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 42c | 319.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.19 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 41c | 295$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.6 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 252.19$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 207.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 206$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 203.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 166.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 37c | 160$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 37c | 160$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 28c | 155.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 58c | 146.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 144.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 136.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 37c | 130.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 39c | 130.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 79c | 125.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 125.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 121$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 34c | 114.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 74c | 100.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 38c | 98.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 85.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 35c | 83.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 41c | 82.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 80.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 37c | 79.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 18c | 77.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 24c | 65.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 63.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 74c | 62.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 30c | 61.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 24c | 60.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 60.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…d7cbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 52.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 24c | 52.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 67c | 50.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 48.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 42.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 67c | 42.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 39c | 42.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed No | 32c | 42.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 24c | 41.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 40c | 40.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 33c | 38.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 69c | 34.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 34.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 35c | 30.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…c740backed Yes | 33c | 30.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked No | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 22.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 71c | 21.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.