Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x300cae0d71e413a056165291933da6a66c7d88468285a04aafc9cb0253d23ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03b5…3481backed No | 12c | 1,788$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 1,458$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 3c | 1,113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 1c | 999.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004a…fb69backed No | 11c | 603.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 601.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 502.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed No | 3c | 447.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 79c | 232.92$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a8…1410backed No | 15c | 164.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 137.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 117$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 42c | 113.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 64c | 108.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 43c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked Yes | 42c | 90.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 85.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 74c | 75.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…a83dbacked Yes | 54c | 68.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 67.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 57.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…09e7backed Yes | 41c | 55.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 73c | 55.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 60c | 50.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…f7d4backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 49.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 58c | 43.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 27c | 40.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 25c | 40.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…0341backed Yes | 38c | 39.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 31c | 35.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…0142backed Yes | 42c | 35.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 30.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 29.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…ca76backed Yes | 41c | 26.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ba…2fbdbacked Yes | 47c | 25.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…648bbacked No | 59c | 23.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0b…8bcbbacked No | 59c | 23.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 62c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…a80dbacked No | 65c | 21.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef83…fe9ebacked Yes | 51c | 21.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…260fbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or higher on February 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.