Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70d81a43c385bf21590a1f61569792f0ada77df501b66eb2be9f8d845d1ea6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,317$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed Yes | 5c | 638.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 3c | 586.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 12c | 500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 23c | 392.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 78c | 305.87$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 25c | 239.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 31c | 199.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 178.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a8…1410backed Yes | 16c | 160.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 157.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 76c | 139.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 37c | 138.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 37c | 133.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 33c | 120.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 26c | 117.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 114.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f6…af9dbacked No | 68c | 111$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 28c | 92.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 66c | 90.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 37c | 90.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 60c | 83.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 78c | 74.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…5a8bbacked No | 78c | 74.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 36c | 70.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 68.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 66.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 40c | 65.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 60.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 56.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 37c | 53.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…f7d4backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 33c | 44.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 44.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 45c | 43.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed No | 67c | 43.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 66c | 42.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…aa0cbacked No | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…bb96backed No | 71c | 41.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 62c | 37.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 42c | 32.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 75c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 56c | 21.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed No | 66c | 21.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…65dcbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb0…1b9ebacked No | 60c | 17.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…cca6backed No | 62c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or higher on February 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.