Movies · resolved market
Will Studio Ghibli announce a new project at SDCC 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30272316d19012a8377de3ef4c51707ef707830b28ce9e52e3b673c1e7ea2fb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 19c | 950$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.3 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…f203backed No | 51c | 368$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.61 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…aa1cbacked No | 70c | 312.86$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 267.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 79c | 225$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 17c | 170$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 15c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…3387backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…ce51backed No | 62c | 65.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…5b5fbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…618bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed No | 79c | 47.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 79c | 32.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…8f74backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Studio Ghibli announce a new project at SDCC 2026?this page
- Will A24 announce a new project at SDCC 2026?No won
- Will Apple TV announce a new project at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will DC Studios announce a new project at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Lucasfilm announce a new project at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Marvel Studios announce a new project at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Paramount announce a new project at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Prime Video announce a new project at SDCC 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.