Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x302ef0d9f8ef2b0ab093ef358db4a600968f585ca0d79ce2d75d10d7bf07f583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 0c | 25,571$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 42c | 326.48$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.11 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 160.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 70c | 156.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 60c | 155.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 24c | 146.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 136.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 41c | 128.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 110.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 45c | 84.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 72.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 26c | 70.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 65.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 62c | 64.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 64.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 63.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…bba2backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 17c | 60.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 60.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…97dcbacked Yes | 38c | 55.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 48.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 42.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 57c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 57c | 35.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 34c | 35.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 60c | 33.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 79c | 31.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 46c | 26.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 40c | 25.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 58c | 24.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.