Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48684319dee56fa902085953839cc6448c3841fa14e3cf7d95d96f6d33beefd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 38c | 331.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.44 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 64c | 173.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 29c | 154.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…5088backed No | 67c | 147.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 123.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 63c | 121.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 50c | 119.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 117.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 105.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 36c | 102.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 40c | 100.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 25c | 93.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 88.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 87.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 85.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 68.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…bba2backed Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 18c | 64.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 63.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 60.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 57.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 54.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 22c | 50.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 41.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 53c | 37.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 37.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 41c | 33.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 61c | 31.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…a9a6backed No | 64c | 31.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 30.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 69c | 28.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 61c | 28.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 64c | 26.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 40c | 25.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 25.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 51c | 25.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 61c | 24.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 24.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 54c | 23.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 71c | 21.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 72c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.