World Politics · resolved market
Will Seoul have between 110-120mm of precipitation in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3047f22e4a9bc5a3b02fcbfe250a24d6da287d231d1e56d3d314e11454bc0b2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 1c | 2,048$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 33c | 1,171$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 69c | 953.84$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…eceabacked Yes | 27c | 215.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 7c | 201.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f0…772ebacked Yes | 6c | 176.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Yes | 52c | 141.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed Yes | 11c | 138.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 46c | 130.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 30c | 110.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +240.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed Yes | 29c | 85.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 74.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 80c | 71.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…392fbacked Yes | 18c | 60.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 35.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…fea9backed Yes | 45c | 26.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 16.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seoul have between 110-120mm of precipitation in May?this page
- Will Seoul have 160mm or more of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Seoul have between 100-110mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Seoul have between 120-130mm of precipitation in May?Yes won
- Will Seoul have between 130-140mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Seoul have between 140-150mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Seoul have between 150-160mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Seoul have less than 100mm of precipitation in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.