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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,848 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x292a…5d78backed No70c692.52$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.149333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No56c448.33$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.982,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c393.49$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.9812,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes28c351.6$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.4339535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes30c293.45$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4666443.5%289 W · 375 L-3.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes30c252.43$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.91,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes63c146.86$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9919047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c144.52$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.252,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78df…1167backed Yes28c142.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.921915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes24c139.68$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.245,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c130.87$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.024,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccb6…5183backed No68c128.47$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes24c121.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.271,17957.4%677 W · 502 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes40c106.05$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.771822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes29c99.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.997524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes38c98.08$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5830131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1112,87920.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L-2,688.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No73c93.08$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.571,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c87.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.887,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0e66…52f5backed Yes30c85.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.366720.9%14 W · 53 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c85.2$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.318,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes35c85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3122945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes50c74.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1216738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes44c70.91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.043748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3827…5455backed Yes42c68.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.565356.6%30 W · 23 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes33c66.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.597445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b96…cdb4backed No76c65.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.71520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-71%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes24c64.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.151321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff6…8ac5backed No64c61.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.467034.3%24 W · 46 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0321…19fabacked Yes51c59.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.521250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4de1…f822backed Yes47c59.47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7719430.4%59 W · 135 L+0.6wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes76c55.94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4330046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d4…fa02backed No45c51.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.212846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9635…ae57backed Yes53c50.65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.62771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,02831.3%949 W · 2,079 L+40.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes34c47.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.452,27214.8%336 W · 1,936 L+52.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes37c46.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6939541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes40c45.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.342330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x54b3…f0bebacked No66c45.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.78270.7%58 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No68c44.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4519152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed No78c43.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0534934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes36c42.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9811038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x977b…0e58backed Yes28c40.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.222352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No51c38.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed Yes53c38.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.053557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes53c38.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9116634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba6e…e245backed Yes39c36.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.348676.7%66 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes67c35.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7452450%262 W · 262 L+29.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c35.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.532,50569.7%1,746 W · 759 L+77.7wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc362…14a8backed Yes75c35.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.863275%24 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes32c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.969335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No40c34.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8557232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No66c34.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…86babacked No77c33.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.97650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No60c33.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2253547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54f…977cbacked No72c33.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.173366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No72c32.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2216575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9982…2822backed Yes32c31.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.593234.4%11 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e2…a783backed Yes64c31.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.265042%21 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c30.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.159,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c30.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.419,98744.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L+258.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7970…3450backed No64c29.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No73c29.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6354966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e8b…4639backed Yes42c29.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.04742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No67c28.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.171,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes59c27.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.236854.4%37 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No72c26.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9240777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No75c23.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.569666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No70c22.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.927464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No77c20.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.992,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No72c20.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5817376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.840871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d37…0ef1backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610258.8%60 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13db…7dfebacked No80c19.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No75c19.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.637777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb347…0b22backed Yes52c19.48$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.334641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b95…6c4abacked No64c19.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No71c19.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5781756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5bc…22d3backed No76c19.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No63c19.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1283360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No65c18.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.249668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No62c17.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No73c16.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1926566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8abc…9e55backed No74c15.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.694872.9%35 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No72c14.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7514671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.