Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x304c6456055d35504f1030175d9be61e961c68edbf4af410cd25231542a34d5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 70c | 692.52$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.14 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 56c | 448.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 393.49$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 28c | 351.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.43 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 293.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.46 | 664 | 43.5%289 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 252.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 63c | 146.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 144.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…1167backed Yes | 28c | 142.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 139.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 130.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb6…5183backed No | 68c | 128.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 24c | 121.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 1,179 | 57.4%677 W · 502 L | +23.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes | 40c | 106.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 38c | 98.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 73c | 93.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 87.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 85.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 85.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 50c | 74.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 44c | 70.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 42c | 68.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 33c | 66.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b96…cdb4backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 24c | 64.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 64c | 61.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…19fabacked Yes | 51c | 59.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 47c | 59.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 55.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 45c | 51.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…ae57backed Yes | 53c | 50.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 34c | 47.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 37c | 46.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes | 40c | 45.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 66c | 45.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 68c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 78c | 43.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 36c | 42.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed Yes | 28c | 40.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 51c | 38.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed Yes | 53c | 38.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 53c | 38.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed Yes | 39c | 36.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 67c | 35.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 524 | 50%262 W · 262 L | +29.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 35.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 75c | 35.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 40c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 34.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…86babacked No | 77c | 33.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 60c | 33.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 72c | 33.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 72c | 32.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 32c | 31.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 64c | 31.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 30.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 30.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7970…3450backed No | 64c | 29.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 29.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…4639backed Yes | 42c | 29.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 28.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 59c | 27.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 26.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 75c | 23.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 70c | 22.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…7dfebacked No | 80c | 19.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 52c | 19.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…6c4abacked No | 64c | 19.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 71c | 19.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bc…22d3backed No | 76c | 19.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 65c | 18.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 17.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 73c | 16.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 74c | 15.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 72c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.