Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x217da87f05bb6c231b6ba73607949bb7345c791a903d21a14144d1d3048ada92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 252.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 210.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 201.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 72c | 195.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 19c | 172.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 63c | 164.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 162.93$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 35c | 160.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 33c | 150.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 27c | 140.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…0f04backed Yes | 70c | 138.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 128.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 43c | 122.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 120.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 29c | 100.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…c488backed Yes | 37c | 100.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 71c | 97.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 95.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 94.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 83.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 29c | 75.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 71.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 71.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 34c | 65.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 61.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 39c | 60.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 47c | 59.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…17fbbacked Yes | 34c | 55.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 69c | 55.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 74c | 53.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes | 35c | 53.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 51.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 50.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 49.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 49.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 35c | 48.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 33c | 46.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 43c | 43.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 67c | 42.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 61c | 39.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 37c | 38.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 38c | 36.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 36.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 57c | 36.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 34.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7970…3450backed No | 68c | 34.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…0201backed Yes | 33c | 33.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 68c | 32.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 36c | 32.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed No | 51c | 30.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 22cpaid | +334.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 67c | 28.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…87bdbacked Yes | 67c | 28.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 27.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…0845backed Yes | 71c | 25.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 25.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 58c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 72c | 24.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3eb…8b33backed No | 71c | 23.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 70c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 76c | 21.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 66c | 20.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.