College Football · resolved market
Liberty vs. Jacksonville State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x306ae40abd09dbd07342f76a759afb4bff92fb2b0c8ab54d6abb2c3746f79e80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacksonville Stateof Liberty, Jacksonville State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Liberty | 51c | 6,997$3,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,563.87 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jacksonville State | 52c | 6,621$3,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,185.38 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Liberty | 47c | 5,176$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412.46 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Jacksonville State | 54c | 4,570$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.7 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Liberty | 45c | 3,676$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.59 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jacksonville State | 53c | 1,903$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.17 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Jacksonville State | 67c | 1,821$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.49 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Jacksonville State | 32c | 1,496$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Liberty | 68c | 1,056$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.25 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…fc7bbacked Liberty | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Liberty | 10c | 915.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jacksonville State | 32c | 879.27$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.9 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Liberty | 52c | 841.85$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.8 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Liberty | 49c | 840$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.08 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Liberty | 68c | 753.66$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.58 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…c403backed Liberty | 20c | 690$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Liberty | 2c | 674.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…dd9bbacked Jacksonville State | 75c | 663.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Jacksonville State | 53c | 621.94$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Liberty | 33c | 590.74$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.61 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cae…f15ebacked Liberty | 68c | 545.59$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jacksonville State | 32c | 398$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.64 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Jacksonville State | 65c | 335.08$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jacksonville State | 53c | 287.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.86 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jacksonville State | 62c | 286.58$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.04 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…741dbacked Liberty | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Jacksonville State | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Liberty | 67c | 184.85$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Jacksonville State | 64c | 156.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4a…4d9ebacked Liberty | 48c | 137.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Jacksonville State | 32c | 111.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Liberty | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…1e28backed Jacksonville State | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Liberty | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Liberty | 68c | 91.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa867…85f1backed Jacksonville State | 60c | 90.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Jacksonville State | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Jacksonville State | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Jacksonville State | 79c | 71.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Jacksonville State | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Liberty | 58c | 66.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…1e59backed Jacksonville State | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602e…b258backed Jacksonville State | 61c | 53.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Liberty | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf974…f5eebacked Jacksonville State | 78c | 45.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Liberty | 52c | 40.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Jacksonville State | 47c | 39.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…da2cbacked Liberty | 51c | 39.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Liberty | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Liberty | 59c | 35.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Liberty | 51c | 34.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Liberty | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Liberty | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…8d12backed Liberty | 68c | 28.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…f053backed Jacksonville State | 61c | 27.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…36d8backed Liberty | 69c | 20.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Jacksonville State | 66c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liberty vs. Jacksonville Statethis page
- Spread: Liberty (-6.5)Jacksonville State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.