MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x307684870d2a4e6708195fa6ac8cee23d7860191c1370fe4f6905538dca11977
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 20,543$10,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,248.08 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 14,200$7,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,090 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 3,599$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.02 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 3,117$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 2,599$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.77 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 2,500$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 1,099$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.5 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 899$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.62 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 801.93$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.93 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 738.32$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.67 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 629$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.5 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 618.23$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.68 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 595$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.61 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 560$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652a…fd23backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 481.25$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e64…5686backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 452.83$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…4e88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 447.17$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 440$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…80febacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 418.75$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 399.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.58 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 285.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 278$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.22 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 232$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 160.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 146$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…a19bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 40.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 40.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 29.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…0800backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…9862backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.