NBA · resolved market
Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x307a0863bc17c4001910f05123aa32441371a10abca99497f0af5f2f33b49bb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x163a…d5cebacked No | 59c | 31,221$18,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,420.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…d7a5backed Yes | 41c | 31,221$12,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,420.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 17c | 1,413$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.25 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…8826backed Yes | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 77c | 460$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.04 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 56c | 122.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-3?this page
- Will the Rockets beat the Warriors 4-1?No won
- Will the Rockets beat the Warriors 4-2?No won
- Will the Rockets beat the Warriors 4-3?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-0?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-1?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.