NBA · resolved market
Will the Rockets beat the Warriors 4-3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde1a7d2868db43803e9bf88e725564db72d817ee19a8c948777a2704ae125567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e4…6d84backed Yes | 56c | 44,658$25,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,008.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24b…7281backed No | 44c | 44,658$19,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,008.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 227.01$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 55c | 210.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 43c | 159.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…a2bcbacked Yes | 58c | 126.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8540…ee5dbacked No | 45c | 113$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 55c | 102.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…abfcbacked Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…ce38backed No | 46c | 77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…a24ebacked Yes | 58c | 63.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…d24cbacked Yes | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…8b71backed No | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e1…907abacked No | 45c | 53.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab0…3283backed Yes | 57c | 52.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…c51dbacked Yes | 57c | 52.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…f9b4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…b4febacked No | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf013…8f55backed Yes | 57c | 34.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d4…2864backed Yes | 57c | 31.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…6ba5backed No | 45c | 26.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…81d6backed No | 45c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Yes | 50c | 25.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a62…9d3dbacked Yes | 57c | 24.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4864…361dbacked No | 45c | 24.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3356…118ebacked No | 45c | 23.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…51ffbacked No | 45c | 23.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Rockets beat the Warriors 4-3?this page
- Will the Rockets beat the Warriors 4-1?No won
- Will the Rockets beat the Warriors 4-2?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-0?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-1?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-2?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.