NFL · resolved market
Eagles vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x309d8f1c69294ecb1e4c8cf592ac820b965bd50a744ccd79ffa67bae731465ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 5,101$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.48 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 48c | 4,878$2,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.58 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 52c | 4,808$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.69 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 48c | 4,642$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.15 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Over | 51c | 3,860$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,891.41 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…dd1dbacked Over | 52c | 2,400$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 2,206$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.84 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 1,845$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.81 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 59c | 1,075$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.96 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.57 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 46c | 907.49$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.1 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 715.77$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.83 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 703.72$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.75 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 675$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.25 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 52c | 463.46$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.46 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 51c | 366.06$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.94 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 52c | 338$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.76 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 47c | 293.15$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.37 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…6721backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…3242backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 53c | 170.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 50c | 147.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…bfdfbacked Over | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…4d2ebacked Over | 53c | 50.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…534cbacked Under | 50c | 35.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eagles vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5this page
- Eagles vs. VikingsEagles won
- Eagles vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-2.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.