NFL · resolved market
Spread: TB (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30b5facdace372109249c560edf9e865a158f3f368dae7532a852b5693765c97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- KCof TB, KC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54ce…9f80backed TB | 53c | 4,002$2,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,107.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed KC | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.1 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed KC | 46c | 700$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed KC | 48c | 611$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.48 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed KC | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed TB | 50c | 379.41$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.7 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked KC | 47c | 372$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed TB | 53c | 372$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.16 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…521abacked KC | 47c | 239.66$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…345fbacked TB | 51c | 122.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked KC | 44c | 108$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed TB | 53c | 74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7dc9backed KC | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…b4e1backed TB | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed TB | 55c | 39.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked TB | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x484b…59f4backed TB | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed KC | 50c | 22.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TB (-3.5)this page
- Chiefs vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers won
- KC vs. TB: O/U 36.5Under won
- KC vs. TB: O/U 37.5Under won
- Spread: KC (-1.5)TB won
- Spread: KC (-2.5)TB won
- Spread: KC (-3.5)TB won
- Spread: TB (-2.5)KC won
- Spread: TB (-4.5)KC won
- Spread: TB (-5.5)KC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.