Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will RKS Raków Częstochowa vs. HNK Hajduk Split end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c298240c28f4d43eb8f63b91cb9f953d0ef88a6eee86c59624a3eca23aa9e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 65c | 1,835$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.15 | 659 | 43.9%289 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Yes | 35c | 1,525$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.3 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 999.99$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.99 | 725 | 50.2%364 W · 361 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 974.77$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.58 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…7337backed Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.74 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 27c | 592$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.16 | 144 | 34.7%50 W · 94 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 73c | 561$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.53 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 450.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.61 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Yes | 27c | 414.44$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.54 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a3…3f10backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 73c | 249.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…8e0abacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 27c | 176$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.48 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 27c | 99.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 632 | 49.1%310 W · 322 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 344 | 49.1%169 W · 175 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 28c | 83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…f104backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 67.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 28c | 62.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 27c | 60.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 55.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 73c | 53.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 28c | 52.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 495 | 55.4%274 W · 221 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 36.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RKS Raków Częstochowa vs. HNK Hajduk Split end in a draw?this page
- Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-08-27?No won
- Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2026-08-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.