Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-08-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35784f8a70ad8a115ef90acf86d5c47c1dee44890a795fb02e27f51545b0b58e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 56c | 3,000$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.71 | 384 | 31.5%121 W · 263 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 2,369$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.68 | 1,041 | 48%500 W · 541 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 26c | 1,614$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.16 | 144 | 34.7%50 W · 94 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Yes | 54c | 1,559$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.33 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 57c | 1,548$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.71 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Yes | 27c | 1,257$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.31 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 37c | 1,037$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.29 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 1,028$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.42 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 61c | 854.2$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.06 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Yes | 24c | 800.63$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.15 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Yes | 25c | 446.68$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed No | 52c | 314.42$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 48c | 297.31$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 128 | 73.4%94 W · 34 L | +19.8wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 203.69$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed No | 52c | 192.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 146.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 76c | 137.93$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 68c | 130.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x852e…e616backed No | 33c | 110.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed No | 39c | 103$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 46c | 100.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 659 | 43.9%289 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 70c | 99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 73c | 83.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 495 | 55.4%274 W · 221 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 48c | 73.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Yes | 41c | 67.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Yes | 44c | 66.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…470dbacked Yes | 46c | 64.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 39c | 45.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Yes | 28c | 45.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb24…6e28backed No | 73c | 41.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Yes | 28c | 39.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 331 | 42.9%142 W · 189 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed No | 58c | 33.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 838 | 45%377 W · 461 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 72c | 32.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 632 | 49.1%310 W · 322 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 896 | 48.2%432 W · 464 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed No | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 73c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2a1fbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Yes | 59c | 16.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Yes | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-08-27?this page
- Will RKS Raków Częstochowa vs. HNK Hajduk Split end in a draw?Yes won
- Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2026-08-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.